The 2024 presidential election is around the corner. Participants are expected to go to polls on November 5. The main candidates this year are Kamala Harris, the vice president of the United States and former president of the United States Donald Trump. Both of them have been moving around the country in their respective campaigns.
The Campaign Trail
Kamala Harris has campaigned in Wisconsin, an important state. At the same time, Trump visited the Al Smith dinner in New York City – it is one of the famous political events. All the candidates are putting in effort. They talk about things such as inflation, the border crisis, or women’s reproductive rights.
Some of the states to pray for are Arizona and Georgia where early voting has started. These states are big battlegrounds. Harris and Trump are both campaigning across the country fundraising and encouraging their supporters.
Polling Insights
In particular, polls give a glimpse of the race. Since Harris became the nominee for the Democratic side her polling numbers have gotten better. Since August she has led Trump by about three points nationally. But we cannot forget that the presidency isn’t awarded on the basis of the number of commonly held estimations. And the Electoral is the last stamp that determines the victory.
There has been little variability in the opinion polls despite much volatility in the campaign. Still, there is a large audience that still supports Trump, including after legal issues. Harris has the funds on her side but, on the other hand, has to deal with the records of Joe Biden’s administration. This makes the race dynamic and the increasing of complexity.
A Contrast in Leadership
This has been an interesting contest of two leadership styles; Harris and Trump. The 56-year-old Harris who once served as a prosecutor celebrated much for her positive outlook in life. That was the only time in the debate that she was able to bring out her strengths. Nevertheless, the legal problems, related to Trump’s presidency, still exist.
Neither have they concentrated much on policy details. This absence of detailed policy discussion is partly owing to the possibility that they are not as divergent as the available information may propose. Still, voters are able to discern a difference not only in substance but in personality and bearing.
US Presidential Election 2024 Forecast
Popular historical expert Allan Lichtman has come up with US Presidential Election 2024 Forecast. He thinks that Kamala Harris will be the winner the face Donald Trump. If he is right, Harris will be the first woman president of the United States of America.
Developing his keys to the white house, Lichtman was able to construct a prediction model. Of recent, this system has given an accurate prediction of the outcome of every presidential election since 1984. It employs 13 indices that analyze various aspects concerning the incumbent party. If six of these keys turn against the incumbent, that party is most likely not going to win an election.
Keys Against Democrats
Lichtman mentioned four buttons that are currently lined up in Trump’s favour. These include:
1. Mandate Key: Democrats were defeated in the House in 2022.
2. Incumbency Key: Unfortunately, the sitting president of the United States of America, Joe Biden, is not in the running.
3. Charisma Key: Harris has not as yet developed the build that previous presidents, like Franklin Roosevelt, possessed.
4. Foreign Policy Key: Realities in the Middle East are a big problem for the Democratic campaign.
Drivers Favouring Kamala Harris
Despite these challenges, Lichtman sees nine keys working in Harris’s favour:
1. Unity Key: Harris has been appreciated by Democrats.
2. Third-Party Key: RFK Jr.’s campaign hasn’t caught on.
3. Economic Keys: Here, there isn’t any recession happening this year, and it shows that its economy has even done better than prior terms.
4. Policy Change Key: Biden’s policies are diametrically opposed to Trump’s.
5. Social Unrest Key: In recent times there have been few protests.
6. Scandal Key: As much as the opposition party tries to scandalize Biden, it has not worked out.
7. Foreign Policy Success Key: Biden has brought together Western nations to counter Putin’s action in Ukraine.
8. Challenger Charisma Key: Trump is not an inspirational leader, in fact, he does not meet most of the requirements of a charismatic leader.
A Historic Moment
By becoming president of the United States, Kamala Harris will be the first woman of mixed Asian and African origin worldwide and the first American president. Her win will, therefore, represent a marked change in the kind of leadership being offered in America.
On the other hand, if Trump wins, Trump will be the first president in more than a century to occupy that presidency without a break for the second time. This comeback would indeed re-engineer the flow of political discourse.
The Independent’s readers are presented with two opposite contenders for their vote. Trump got down to business with the political attitude called the “America First” policy, which is often executed without regard to others. Harris is more proceeding with the help of allies’ cooperation.
Election time is not easy in any country and the political temperature rises day by day. Electors will consider the contenders’ plans for the future. It is a very close contest, no vote is insignificant.
Conclusion
The 2024 presidential election is on track to turn into a historical one. The outcome will be quite consequential for the parties headed by Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Thus, while arriving at their choice, voters don’t only have to think carefully about the stakes and the proposals on the table but also about the kind of person running for election. This election will be a historical moment, and irrespective of who Triumphs, it is going to be a turning point.\
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